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Du Yili: Outlook for Chinese Tourism in 2025

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2025-01-16

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Editor-in-Chief | Yang Ming

Editor | Liu Kaiye

Source | China Tourism Association

△Du Yili, Vice President of the China Tourism Association, former Vice Director and Party Committee Member of the State Tourism Administration

Regarding the outlook for Chinese tourism in 2025, the most critical question is whether 2025 will be more difficult or better than 2024. Frankly, I cannot answer that. The mission of industry researchers is to identify trends and do everything possible to promote their development. Having been involved in the industry for 40 years, my experience tells me that the most reliable predictions for the industry are based on two things: firstly, understanding the resonance between the industry and the times, and secondly, understanding the characteristics and laws governing the frequency and non-frequency of the tourism industry with "other industries" at each stage. Therefore, analyzing trends at this moment is not simply saying that "tomorrow will be better," nor is it about using the profound blues of "waiting for dawn at midnight." I am optimistic about the main theme of "a wide river with rolling waves," in E major, a slow, firm, calm, and bright tone! This metaphor also expresses that although our analysis cannot grasp every wave and every surge, looking at the trend from the perspective of a large river, it is roughly accurate, and the direction is correct.

1. Therefore, the first question in looking forward to 2025 is to confirm the consensus: "What stage is the tourism industry currently in?"

Our understanding has been adjusting over the past five years, and we still cannot be certain after 2023. After 2024, especially as the strategic chess game of the Party and the state is further advanced, tourism professionals have once again confirmed the basic judgment: the tourism industry is not entering a "recovery period" after a "semi-dormant period" of sudden setbacks, and then a "recovery and development period." It is not recovery and development, but with the fundamental changes in the external situation, the Chinese tourism industry has entered a complete turning point, a turning point of development.

The past is just a prologue, or the "first volume" or "first episode." What is unfolding now is the "new tourism in transformation." This is the historical position and overall characteristics of the tourism industry. This is like the Yellow River, a "great river," which suddenly turns northwest in the Animaqing Mountains of Sichuan, and then travels north for two thousand miles, flowing out of China's vast Hetao River Basin, then turns again, then flows south through Shanxi and Shaanxi, and then turns again, flowing eastward, finally towards the sea.

After 2023 and 2024, we see that the Chinese tourism industry, after a three-year semi-dormant period, has restarted, suddenly changed, and embarked on a new path with new characteristics, "switching from fuel to electric," changing tracks and accelerating.

Those involved in market and product development have the most direct feeling: the era of large-scale projects and high investment, with one major project after another, is over, but new demand hotspots are emerging one after another. The new tourism industry, "driven by demand," has arrived. The tourism industry is increasingly integrated into people's lives and hearts, inheriting culture and responding to the times. In the transformation of the new tourism industry, from an investment perspective, the tourism industry has entered a period of calm, "settling, accumulating, and transforming"; from the perspective of momentum, the tourism industry has entered a "demand-driven period"; from the perspective of market performance, it seems to be a "period of cultural accumulation and innovation explosion"; from the perspective of industry goals and values, there is a manifestation of a spiritual "return to essence." The tourism industry is reborn in transformation.

2. There is a special nostalgia for 2024 at this time of outlook.

This year was still difficult, but it was also very certain. All the difficulties remain, but from the great changes, we have seen a clear chess game, strategic determination, and flexible responses. The strategy of a country lies in its momentum. The Chinese way of thinking is good at "judging the situation and momentum." Once the momentum is clear, people will become accepting and calm, instead of being impetuous, anxious, and bewildered. Whether it is the reverse trend of globalization, the decoupling between China and the United States, economic pressure, or consumption obstacles, the bottom line has been seen, and the worst is over. Once unrealistic illusions are abandoned, and one "settles down," they become determined, transparent, and fearless. In the midst of great changes, the country has stabilized, from being unwilling to engage in strategic confrontation to "bring it on, I'll take the challenge." Accepting challenges, resisting pressure, combating deflation, under internal and external pressure, increasing self-pressure, accelerating self-transformation, regardless of whether Trump comes to power or any other changes, you do yours, I do mine, and I'm still looking at the chessboard, looking for breakthroughs or creating breakthroughs. When the country is stable, the people are at peace, and people's hearts are adjusted. They earnestly focus on development and live their lives steadily; the overall situation of the tourism industry has stabilized, and the next step is to proceed step by step, steadily upward.

3. Therefore, we can make a positive outlook for the tourism industry in 2025 without avoiding the problems.

Overall, it is still a situation where the population is booming but wealth is not, wealth is localized, and booming population but not wealth is the majority. However, because the development stage is stable and the economic trend is stable, the scale of the tourism market, that is, the trend line of "booming population," is steadily upward, and the basic support of mass tourism is continuing to strengthen.

At the same time, tourism consumption is relatively stable, which means that the total consumption will not experience explosive growth. Therefore, in the transforming economic environment, the situation in the cultural and tourism market is characterized by "intense competition." Cultural and tourism enterprises and participants should prepare for tough battles and long-term competition.

Three points to clarify this outlook:

First, let's talk about the booming population but not wealth. This is a trend that emerged in 2024 and I believe will continue in 2025. Firstly, this is based on the fact that "the improvement of weak consumption is still underway," and the boost to consumption cannot be as sudden as the stock market; secondly, it is based on the overall social mentality, which is beginning to become determined and stable. We acknowledge the economic difficulties, but our beliefs are firmer, and our confidence has not collapsed. Therefore, although there are difficulties, the demand and desire for tourism continue to grow, continuing the trend of "booming population but not wealth."

"Booming population but not wealth" is not entirely negative; it has clear positive significance at present: firstly, it shows that the cultural and tourism industry plays an important positive role in building the social spirit and emotions during the transformation period, providing encouragement, relief, and comfort; social spirit and emotional construction has always been important; secondly, it shows that the tourism market is highly active, indicating that cultural and tourism is a solid rigid demand, and a standard configuration for people's quality of life and quality of life in the upgrading and development stage. The General Secretary's New Year's address said something homely: "This year, when I went to local areas for inspection, I saw that everyone's lives were colorful," not "I saw that everyone was well-fed and clothed." Making people's lives colorful is the characteristic of the "people's livelihood industry" stage, and this is the ultimate value of the new tourism in transformation. The General Secretary said, "Family affairs, state affairs, and world affairs, enabling the people to live a happy life is the top priority." In 2024, the state positioned the tourism industry as a "people's livelihood industry," one of the new era's top priorities, "demand determines status, people's livelihood industry, large base, rigid demand, stable trend, promising future."

Secondly, regarding the outlook's mention of "increased competition" and "intense competition." In the economic restructuring, market competition from all sides is stronger, with more "wolves" eyeing the tourism industry, and "intense competition" isn't just "involution," but also "external competition," "mixed competition," "fierce competition," and "high-intensity competition." This is something everyone has already predicted. From the perspective of industry development, the focus here is not on the "methods of competition" themselves, but on the winners who "compete their way to success" and their new breakthroughs. I believe that in this era of great competition, without some new breakthroughs, you won't be able to "compete your way to success"; in this era of transformation, behind various breakthrough phenomena, there may be new laws of new tourism. Discovering and mastering these laws is foresight.

Thirdly, predictions and opinions on several prominent aspects of competition.

Firstly, cities. In the level of tourism competition, cities are still the main players. Cities are not originally market entities, but the tourism industry uses "destinations" as a carrier to deeply bind cities of all sizes. Now, the competitive landscape of cities determines the landscape of the tourism industry. In recent years, the methods of competition among destinations have undergone fundamental changes. The breakthroughs or those who break through are no longer the large-scale project introductions, large capital investments, and "completion of super new products" that we are accustomed to, but have changed channels—cultural explosion, destinations going viral. Various forces are intertwined, nested, and interconnected, forming a wave-like tourism scene. The innovation is none other than cultural explosion.

Cultural explosion is currently a hot topic in the new tourism industry. Every successful explosion is a creation, a kind of experimental creation in social culture. In recent years, with the rise of the national trend, the combination of tourism and culture has suddenly seemed to open up the Ren and Du meridians, and cities constantly seize a trendy point, giving a call to action, and begin to lead a wave of Han style, Tang style, and Great Qin style. Recognizing that the integration of tourism and daily life is a characteristic of this stage, various places can explore daily life culture to the extreme. If it's about the common people, make it fantastic; if it's about fashion, make it unbeatable; if it's about elegance, make it elegant to the core. Reviewing 2024, it's truly "many roads lead to Rome," and all the successful breakthrough players have taken their own unique path. For example, rural culture, various explorations, it's only a matter of putting the entire village into a museum. However, Guizhou had a flash of inspiration and created "Village Super," a vibrant culture, villagers having fun, come on, let's all have fun together, and thus it exploded! These breakthroughs are a shock to theoretical research, "Don't 'gaze' anymore, let's have fun together"; these breakthroughs are also a fundamental shock to product planning, original creations from life beyond "scholarly imagery," the laws of the openness and activation of local culture beyond "commercial closed loops," the mutual assistance of community cultural power and tourism attraction, the deep cultivation of rural life and the cultivation of the basic model of Chinese tourism, are all cultural construction and development. Development is creation, and only by taking root in real life can we have the confidence.

After these years, we understand: the beauty of Chinese people is awakening, culture is awakening, and new cultural phenomena are expressions of new and improved needs. You must have the ability to recognize it, seize it, fulfill it, amplify it, and create an ecosystem for it, to be able to use culture to ignite tourism.

Looking forward to 2025, I am looking forward to the wave of cultural explosion tourism. World intangible cultural heritage Spring Festival, are we optimistic about Guangzhou's Spring Festival culture or the Central Plains culture of Henan and Hebei? Next, what kind of new version will Zibo's "small food, big culture" create? Also, the Dragon Boat Festival is coming again soon, who can lead the dragon boat race, create a unique dragon boat race, and even make it the "super Mecca" of Chinese culture? How many more cities will unexpectedly explode with miracles in the ordinary. It's worth looking forward to.

Secondly, the track. Today, heavyweight industry leaders will conduct in-depth, practical, and down-to-earth analyses of the overall industry and important tracks, such as Miao Lin and Guo Ping, who speak with products and performance through hard work. Their judgments and predictions are the most valuable. I want to express gratitude for the dividends of the times. In the new stage, the boundaries of the tourism industry are infinitely expanding, the tourism tracks are succeeding each other, new concepts are emerging, new gameplay is dazzling, and the tourism industry should be a field full of hope. At the same time, I want to express that there is no wind that can be blown, and no field does not require hard work. The "involution," "external competition," and "mixed competition" mentioned earlier are most obvious here.

Traditional tracks. In 2025, the good news for track competition is the recovery of traditional tracks. With high-level national efforts, outbound and inbound tourism is rising from the bottom, bringing hope and comfort to the industry, and this is a source of comfort for traditional tourism professionals. Outbound and inbound tourism is the barometer of the tourism industry, and it is the barometer of the country in the global situation. Although the outbound tourism environment and inbound tourism operation models have been completely changed, we believe that our new generation of tourism professionals will be able to quickly rebuild the core capabilities of outbound and inbound tourism. During the platform period, Chinese operators were not inferior to anyone, and cross-border social platforms played an invisible shaping force on cross-border e-commerce, including tourism. Old tracks, new challenges.

Main tracks. Changes are quietly occurring in the main tracks such as scenic spots and hotels. This is where our main assets and fixed assets are located, and it has also been a hot spot and key area for tourism investment. In the new stage, this area has difficulties and problems, but the explosion of technology and the integration of mass tourism and daily life have "passed" us. Here, the dawn is quiet, and the main industries are changing quietly, some are undergoing earth-shattering changes. In 2025, many more changes will come. Industry experts will have in-depth analysis of these areas.

New tracks and new gameplay, strong winds but calm waves. Everyone is particularly concerned about the so-called new tracks and new gameplay, such as research and study tours, sports, cultural relics and museums, and health preservation; those "tourism, sports, and culture," "tourism, culture, and health preservation," "tourism, culture, and agriculture," "tourism, culture, and commerce"; those silver-haired economy, lazy economy, pet economy; various popular expressions, developing with varying degrees of success. The overall assessment is "strong winds, but calm waves." This means that many new tracks have not really unfolded, the products are still the same products, the enterprises are still the same enterprises, constantly launching new brands and playing new concepts, without expanding new markets and creating new value. New needs and new tracks are potential and rely on cultivation. However, the thinking of too many participants is still old. Wearing old shoes, walking new roads.

For example, health preservation, once you think about the new tracks proposed by the state, then let's integrate some policies and resources. In those days, when doing tourism, wasn't it all about "the sheep's wool comes from the cow's back"? For health preservation, can local governments provide some policies, help digest existing assets to help with debt reduction, it should be supported, right? The essential question here is who truly has the ability to leverage the health preservation market, who truly has unique skills in the health preservation market? Participating in new tracks, without brand products, without leading enterprises, without market foundation, having a name but no substance, using concepts to leverage resources, this competitive situation is misplaced.

Traditional tourism enterprises participate more in "research and study tours," and it is even a life-saving market for many scenic spot enterprises and travel agencies. Firstly, because the basis of research and study tour products is existing assets and public resources, and secondly, a large proportion of the operation of research and study tours is service work, which we have experience in. Therefore, we use the needs of research and study tours to re-wash traditional products and conduct "adaptation for learning transformation." This is certainly an improvement and progress. However, this track is a modified track, and there is no system of research and study tour products, and the overall level is simply "making do." There is still a lot of room for creation in providing new value.

Sports tourism is doing well in various sectors, the key is that the integration of the two starts from the demand side. Both are "urgent needs" and "daily needs" in the new stage, and "life-oriented needs". Tourism demand groups and sports and fitness demand groups have common consumption needs and their own special consumption needs, supporting and enriching each other, and the market has strong dynamism. "The end of sports is tourism", "The end of tourism is sports", the internal driving force, coupled with the country's advocacy, accelerates the formation of a pattern, such as the rise of ice and snow tourism from south to north, is a good proof. Overall, the lifestyle atmosphere of tourism and sports in China is taking shape. The sector's dividends will be long-lasting.

In the coming years, perhaps by 2025, the brightest sector will undoubtedly be technology tourism. The focus is on the application of cutting-edge technology, artificial intelligence, through the use of artificial intelligence, robotics and low-altitude economy, all directly participating in the reconstruction of tourism models. The competition is about who uses it cleverly and well. In the new era of new tourism and culture, the application of technology is not a single sector, but an explosion of technology, a comprehensive application. The coolest technological tourism products in 2024 are AR, VR, MR and other digital display technologies rendering tourism scenes and activating the private display and exhibition of cultural relics. These are technological tourism products, but they are not the entirety of technological tourism, nor are they the entirety of digital tourism. The creation of new IPs in the technological era that we have repeatedly described is only just beginning. The space in this field is limitless.

Thirdly, there is point competition. Point competition refers to market entities. However, tourism and culture is a "pan-industry", with "many enterprises" as the core, giving rise to several participants, which are actually several "ecological groups". Point competition concerns the survival and development of various entities in this ecosystem. We hope for more attention, and a more positive approach and attitude.

Point competition does not represent weakness. In this era, enterprises at any point can engage in "cross-border competition" and "cross-dimensional victory". For example, global competition is not only for large global enterprises to deploy global business, nor is it only for national leading enterprises to deploy cross-regional and cross-industry development. In a flat era, in a networked world, influence is king, and point competitors can guide the flow of tourists. Who will win is completely uncertain! Online literature, online dramas, online games, the new three items of cultural export; Bubble Mart, known as trendy toys, is unknown to many people in China, but in 2024 it swept the Southeast Asian market, and the Thai king received it; Li Ziqi, the beautiful "rural life", connects tens of millions of urban young hearts across cultures; Zhangjiajie opened up the Korean market not because it is large and strong, but because it has solidly secured direct flights and cultivated a single customer market. Therefore, I believe that the energy of brands and individuals in the new tourism and culture era needs to be re-evaluated. They can be the detonating point of cities and industries, or the core of private domains, and small cores can develop countless small ecosystems. In the era of point competition, success is not judged by size, nor by level, point competition is not about being big and strong, success or failure depends on the market's "positioning".

Regarding point competition, I think the key is to break the original cognitive framework, break the linear and block thinking, and change the habitual path of hierarchical competition. In the current phenomenon of point competition, there are many profound things. For example, the cultural and spiritual connections of modern society are being constructed in a complex and sophisticated way. To adapt to this reconstructed layered culture and diverse lifestyle pattern, to provide "multifaceted" products, and to achieve the prosperity and development of the tourism and culture market, we must adapt to these complex and sophisticated internal laws. Therefore, of course, some people dare to say that the homestay they run is a destination, that the bookstore they run is the cultural core of X place, and that a small coffee shop can become the soul of a community. We should respect and even admire the tenacious and creative vitality of these small enterprises that seize every opportunity. At the same time, point competition has no "complete victory", it is always "rain in the east and sunshine in the west", there are successes and failures, we must see the wreckage of the tide receding; we must also see the new people, new forms, and new products constantly emerging in the great waves, this is the norm of market competition.

Regarding point competition, we should also pay more attention to the products around us. Opportunities are everywhere, but success is difficult to predict. We always talk about new sectors and new trends, as if we are always encouraging the adoption of changing sectors to embrace new tourism and culture. Here I have been asking myself: will tourism professionals who make a living on their own small piece of land inevitably fall behind? Can they not create new tourism and cultural value? I think this is also a fundamental question during the transition period. Fortunately, in the past two years of arduous practice, there have been calm and rational responses: previously, our main definition of product failure was that capital did not achieve its profit goals, but from the perspective of the people's livelihood industry, many successful business cases are not new business formats, new products, or new models, but those products around us that meet the most basic and deepest needs of modern people. For example, Pang Donglai, Yuanjiacun, and Kaige'er's Tangshan Banquet. In the end, we found that the secret to success is not only "capital operation" and "business innovation", but also sincerity and "dedication", a "childlike heart".

The success of these people around us has irreplaceable significance for the new tourism and culture of the new era: mass tourism, people's livelihood industry, the spiritual needs of ordinary people in daily life, that is, humanistic tourism, human-oriented tourism, and human tourism, this is the ultimate value of the tourism and culture industry. We have always talked about Japan's 30 years of calm period, which has honed a "seamless" "refined service". In this new era, we are rediscovering and promoting truly people-oriented "humanistic tourism", "human-oriented tourism", and "human tourism", which may be "rolled out".

Conclusion; back to the "hardcore problem" at the beginning. 2025 will be a more difficult year, but also a better year. It is a year of struggle, a year of deep cultivation, a year of steady and quiet development, a year of creation and meeting needs, and a year of nurturing new breakthroughs. In 2025, we will move forward with determination and steadfastness. To express blessings and beliefs in the words of a poet: Hai Zi said "Poetry and the sun coexist", we say "Tourism and tomorrow coexist"; "We coexist with tourism".

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